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03/14/2019 10:00 AM EDT

By ZACH MONTELLARO ([email protected]; @ZachMontellaro)


Editor's Note: This edition of Morning Score is published weekdays at 10 a.m. POLITICO Campaign Pro subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 6 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro's comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here

QUICK FIX
- Today's planned Senate vote to disapprove of President Donald Trump's emergency declaration is splitting battleground Republicans.

- Former Rep. Beto O'Rourke's presidential bid is here. He texted an El Paso television station that he's running, on the same evening a splashy Vanity Fair cover story landed.

- Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross will be grilled at a hearing by House Democrats over trying to add a question on citizenship to the census.

Good Thursday morning. Email me at [email protected] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the Campaign Pro team at [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] and [email protected]. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @DanielStrauss4, @JamesArkin and @lbarronlopez.

Days until the NC-03 primary election: 47

Days until the NC-09 primary election: 61

Days until the Kentucky and Mississippi general elections: 236

Days until the 2020 election: 600

PLAYBOOK POOL: March Madness is here, which means it's time for the 3rd annual Playbook Pool bracket challenge hosted by our Playbook authors across the country (DC, NY, NJ, MA, IL, FL, & CA)! Track who's up and who's down throughout the tournament as you compete against your friends, top Playbookers, political insiders and VIPs to win prizes including an Amazon Echo, Series 3 Apple Watch, iPhoneXR and more. Create your bracket starting on Selection Sunday (March 17) after the highly anticipated field of teams in this year's tournament are chosen. Click here to get in the game!
THE TOPLINES
DEALING WITH TRUMP - GOP senators in competitive 2020 elections have a decision to make: Stick with the president on his national emergency declaration, or vote to oppose him?

Battleground Republicans are split. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) was an early supporter of the disapproval resolution. And Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) wrote an op-ed two weeks ago saying that he, too, would oppose the emergency declaration. His knees got wobbly on Wednesday, when he told reporters that his vote was a "work in progress" while some Republicans, led by Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), tried to cut a deal with the White House that would see a change in the National Emergencies Act to allow for congressional approval in exchange for standing with him on this disapproval vote. But that plan was nuked by the president, who called Lee to tell him no deal would be had, POLITICO's Burgess
Everett reported (Lee later said that he, too, would vote for the disapproval resolution).

Tillis is facing pressure back home over his opposition: Some local Republican party leaders are openly talking about backing a primary challenge against him, and Rep. Mark Walker (R-N.C.) wouldn't explicitly rule out challenging him, The Hill's Scott Wong and Alexander Bolton reported.

Other Republicans have sided with the president. Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) told The Washington Post's Seung Min Kim and Erica Werner that she'd back Trump, "but we really have abdicated our responsibility." Sen. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) told the Arizona Republic's Yvonne Wingett Sanchez and Ronald Hansen that she won't buck the president after being told any funding won't affect key Arizona defense projects. Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.) has also signaled he's sticking with the president in an interview last week with our own James Arkin and Burgess Everett. Sen. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) still has not publicly said how he'll vote.

For the chamber's most vulnerable Democrat, the calculation has been easier. Sen. Doug Jones (D-Ala.) is expected to vote with the rest of his caucus to oppose the national emergency.

MILKEN INSTITUTE GLOBAL CONFERENCE: Ben White will once again bring POLITICO's Morning Money newsletter to the Milken Institute Global Conference from April 28 through May 2. The special edition newsletter will detail highlights, major conversations, evening festivities and VIP gatherings throughout the conference. Sign up today to receive exclusive, in-depth coverage from the scene of #MIGlobal.
IN THE TRENCHES
PRESIDENTIAL BIG BOARD - Get ready for Betomania 2.0. O'Rourke texted KTSM, an El Paso, Texas, television station, saying that he was running for president Wednesday night. "I'm really proud of what El Paso did and what El Paso represents," O'Rourke wrote to the station. "It's a big part of why I'm running. This city is the best example of this country at its best." Earlier on Wednesday, The Texas Tribune's Patrick Svitek tweeted that O'Rourke's team emailed volunteers, saying "we need help sending some text messages tomorrow morning" (that's today!). And the final icing on the cake: Joe Hagan's profile of O'Rourke on the cover of Vanity Fair. "You can probably tell that I want to run," he
told Hagan. "I do. I think I'd be good at it."

O'Rourke has been reaching out to Iowa Democrats ahead of his extended visit to the state this weekend. He has been "personally calling high-profile figures in Iowa, including former Gov. Tom Vilsack," POLITICO's David Siders and Natasha Korecki reported.

- The 2020 field is hitting up swing state senators for advice. "[They've] looked to Sens. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, Bob Casey of Pennsylvania and Debbie Stabenow of Michigan for advice from the key states that tipped the 2016 election," Campaign Pro's James Arkin and Daniel Strauss reported. "None of the senators said they had plans to endorse a candidate."

- Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) is heading to Texas, hosting a rally in Houston on March 23.

- Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper gets his CNN town hall in Atlanta next Wednesday, per CNN's Kate Sullivan.

THE CENSUS QUESTION - Ross appears in front of the House Oversight Committee today, where he'll be grilled by Democrats about the Trump administration's plan to add a question on citizenship to the 2020 census (reminder: The Supreme Court is set to hear arguments about the question in late April). "I think that their rationale that they want to enforce the Voting Rights Act is just b.s.," Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D-Calif.), a committee member, told NBC News' Dartunorro Clark.

THE CAROLINA SPECIALS - The FBI and state officials investigated Leslie McCrae Dowless, the operative at the center of the election fraud scandal in NC-09, in May, just days before the primary election. "In an interview, Wake County District Attorney Lorrin Freeman said the FBI suspended its involvement in the probe because of Justice Department guidelines that caution against taking investigative steps close to an election," The Washington Post's Amy Gardner reported.

- The Green Party's Allen Smith was the only candidate to file to run Wednesday in NC-09.

- The FEC released its reporting timetable for the special election in NC-03.

STILL ALIVE - "Zombie campaigns," which are political operations that keep spending after a politician's career is over, are still alive and well. "The Campaign Legal Center ... filed a federal complaint Monday against a political action committee created by Jacksonville Republican Ander Crenshaw, saying the group spent Crenshaw's leftover donations on Apple products, expensive dinners and a $5,000 trip to Disney World," the Tampa Bay Times' Noah Pransky reported.

PAC ATTACK - A super PAC called Kentuckians for a Better Future is set to launch ads backing Democrat Adam Edelen in the Kentucky Democratic gubernatorial primary, per Medium Buying. Here's more on the group from the Louisville Courier Journal's Phillip Bailey.

THE SENATE MAP - Some recruitment news across the nation from Campaign Pro's James Arkin: In Texas, Democrat Amanda Edwards, a member of the Houston City Council said she was exploring a bid. And in Colorado, former Obama administration official Dan Baer met with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and the DSCC. More news for Pros in James' full Senate recruiting notebook.

- Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, who is mulling a presidential bid, ruled out a Senate run. "I think that my skill set, and what I've done, I just wouldn't enjoy it, so I'd ruled it out," Bullock said in an interview with the Montana Free Press' John Adams.

- New Hampshire Republican Gov. Chris Sununu wouldn't rule out a run against Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, per the Concord Monitor's Paul Steinhauser.

NOT LEAVING - GOP Rep. Bob Gibbs (OH-07) is not looking to retire, thank you very much. A spokesperson for Gibbs told Cleveland.com's Seth Richardson that he'll seek reelection, despite local rumors that he may retire and that the state Senate president was eyeing his seat should he leave.

DELEGATE COUNTING - Could Democrats be heading for a contested convention? Due to how they award delegates, maybe. "The Democratic Party's egalitarian-minded rules allocate all pledged delegates to its convention on a proportional basis ... making it difficult for a leading candidate to become a runaway train," David Wasserman wrote in The New York Times. "In fact, had the 2016 Republican primary played out under Democrats' rules, it would have almost assuredly resulted in an ugly, contested convention."

DINING ALONE - A handful of freshman House Democrats have skipped out on joining any of the caucuses, like the Congressional Progressive Caucus or Blue Dog Coalition. "For some of these members, stressing their independence is critical for their reelections," Roll Call's Bridget Bowman reported. "They have to balance energizing base Democrats with appealing to more moderate voters and Republicans. One way to showcase that is by steering clear of ideological groups."

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "My Italian grandfather, God bless him, used to get everything very simple. You want to lose weight? 'Shut your mouth,' he used to say," New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo discussing how a lot of "formulas in life" are simple.

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