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Remembering the beginning of this bull market
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DATE:
2019-03-16 12:03:15
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hbiden@rosemontseneca.com
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Looking back reminds us of the importance of steady investing The 10-Year Old Bull Market It\u2019s hard to believe that 10 years have passed since the end of the \u201cGreat Recession.\u201d But it was on March 9, 2009, that the 2008 bear market finally ended. For the steely-nerved investors who were invested in equities at the time, and have remained in equities for the 10 years since the S&P 500 has delivered a stout +17.8%annualized return. Patience, rewarded! Looking back at this recent history of bear and bull markets brings up a crucial point that I believe investors should keep front of mind \u2013 patience is almost always rewarded. When the market crashed in October of 1987, what was the S&P 500\u2019s annualized return (including dividends) in the following 10 years? +17.2%. Following the bear market that ended in August 1982, what was the S&P 500\u2019s annualized return (including dividends) in the following 10 years? +17.6%. And finally, after the harsh bear market that ended in September 1974, the S&P 500\u2019s annualized return for the next 10 years? +15.6%.1 https://cl.S7.exct.net/?qs=89c8cdcddb7fb21eb12701d2eac6ef4ba9cc3c8b7109533fa13b13580fe6ee15bafc5e728cb89f13cf46cd60e19c7a9887e4f71513736fce Is a Bear Market Around the Corner? Get Zacks\u2019 View! As we celebrate the 10-year anniversary of the Bull Market, it is hard not to wonder "when will the next Bear arrive?" But if history has taught us anything, it is not to get caught up in trying to time the market. Instead, the key in my view is to stay focused on the fundamentals \u2013 economic data releases, earnings reports, and other economic factors! To help you do this, we are offering all readers a look into our just-released April 2019 Stock Market Outlook report. This report will provide you with our forecasts along with additional factors to consider: - Will 2019 stay bullish? - Zacks global markets\u2019 outlook - What sectors show the best opportunity? - What industries within those sectors most merit your attention? - Forecast for the S&P - Small-cap vs. large-cap returns - And much more. If you have $500,000 or more to invest and want to learn more about these forecasts, click on the link below to get your free report today! https://cl.S7.exct.net/?qs=89c8cdcddb7fb21eb12701d2eac6ef4ba9cc3c8b7109533fa13b13580fe6ee15bafc5e728cb89f13cf46cd60e19c7a9887e4f71513736fce IT'S FREE. Download the Just-Released April 2019 Stock Market Outlook 2 If there is one lesson/takeaway we can apply to big bear markets in hindsight, it\u2019s that some of the stock market\u2019s brightest days \u2013 and best returns \u2013 have often followed the darkest days. Indeed, just when pessimism and doubt are running at their highest levels, that is just the time when the economy and stock market can and have recovered historically, in my view. The challenge for investors is to understand and acknowledge the power, and reality, of this \u201810-year recovery\u2019 before it happens \u2013 as opposed to being on the sidelines while it\u2019s happening. Reflecting back on the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, I empathize with the true difficulty of remaining patient and strong-willed in the face of what seemed at the time like total economic destruction and chaos. In the throes of the crisis, the S&P 500 fell by -28% in just 22 days, and the index ended up losing more than half its value through the trough of the bear (March 2009). The unemployment rate in America went from around 5% in January 2008 to 9.8% in January 2010. Millions of Americans lost their jobs and their homes, and the United States entered one of the deepest recessions we\u2019ve ever experienced. At one point, GDP fell by -8.9% in a single quarter (Q4 2008), its worst decline in 50 years. Home mortgage defaults soared from 3.66% to 11.54%.3 It\u2019s easy to understand why some investors felt going to cash was the only option. But we know today that staying invested even in the most difficult of times would have ushered an investor\u2019s net worth to new heights, given that the S&P 500 passed its 2007 all-time high only 6 years later, in 2013.4 Fast forward to today, the market is far higher than it was in 2013. Patience rewarded yet again. Bottom Line for Investors Almost 11 years ago, on September 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy.5 At the time, few investors, analysts, or investment professionals fully understood the extent of damage the Lehman event would ultimately cause to the global economy. Today we understand the full thrust of the impact on jobs, the capital markets, and the livelihoods of many Americans. Today, we know the path the U.S. economy charted to recovery, with the unemployment rate currently near historic lows and the stock market near all-time highs. The brightest days have often followed the darkest ones. Looking ahead, I can say with confidence that I believe the United States and global economy will experience another economic crisis in the future. I cannot say when or how severe that crisis will be, just that I strongly believe it will occur. But I also believe that the U.S. and global economy will recover, that the U.S. stock market will bounce back to reach new all-time highs, and that American workers will live through it. That\u2019s why I believe that investors who remain patient and confident in the long-term strength of the U.S. economy \u2013 through good times and bad \u2013 stand the best chance of reaping the greatest long-term rewards. As we have historically seen time and time again, patience is rewarded. To help you stay focused on the long-term, I am offering all readers our https://cl.S7.exct.net/?qs=89c8cdcddb7fb21eb12701d2eac6ef4ba9cc3c8b7109533fa13b13580fe6ee15bafc5e728cb89f13cf46cd60e19c7a9887e4f71513736fce Just-Released April 2019 Stock Market Outlook Report. This Special Report is packed with newly revised predictions that can help you base your next investment move on hard data. For example, you'll discover Zacks\u2019 view on: - Will 2019 stay bullish? - Zacks global markets\u2019 outlook - What sectors show the best opportunity? - What industries within those sectors most merit your attention? - Forecast for the S&P - Small-cap vs. large-cap returns - And much more. If you have $500,000 or more to invest and want to learn more about these forecasts, click on the link below to get your free report today! https://cl.S7.exct.net/?qs=89c8cdcddb7fb21eb12701d2eac6ef4ba9cc3c8b7109533fa13b13580fe6ee15bafc5e728cb89f13cf46cd60e19c7a9887e4f71513736fce FREE Download \u2013 Zacks' April 2019 Stock Market Outlook 6 >> ABOUT ZACKS INVESTMENT MANAGEMENTBorn from Research \u2013 Built for Performance Zacks Investment Management was born out of one of the country\u2019s largest providers of independent research, Zacks Investment Research. Our independent research capabilities from our parent company truly distinguish us from other wealth management firms - our strategies are derived from research and innovation, including the proprietary Zacks Rank stock selection model, earnings surprise and estimate revision factors. At Zacks Investment Management, we work with clients with $500,000 or more to invest, and we use this independent research, 35+ years of investment management experience, and tools we\u2019ve developed to design customized investment portfolios based on each client\u2019s individual needs. The end result is investment management that is research driven, results oriented and client focused. Ready to get serious about pursuing your financial goals? Call 1-800-701-9830 today, or schedule a time with a Zacks Wealth Advisor. https://cl.S7.exct.net/?qs=89c8cdcddb7fb21e76a7149e8bd7cfffc475e3ea4f15106d9b0668eb5bffc50e3e5c2c0a943ee736c8edd642c6a5088fc22305bfcd13e90f (c) Zacks Investment Management | https://cl.S7.exct.net/?qs=89c8cdcddb7fb21e3f13e4bbf63df4a997858eadc69deca09f96737715ac3e0b8cde6ceee9a30c39e513e8bb53b351cf9b4a578654765aa1 Privacy Policy | https://cl.S7.exct.net/?qs=89c8cdcddb7fb21e4cb4fb3efe5f0a65246a47521137fbae0b6b0f91b024162d7753a55c073131b8132025fb9e5f2d00c4f68c117e7c0053 Unsubscribe 1 https://cl.S7.exct.net/?qs=89c8cdcddb7fb21ed906d6299273d8bee405f8ca5b899287aa8de36cab1b55dcac65a24ce96014c984c01009d6b8dfca8babcd71c3ca8baa CNBC, March 4, 2019 2 Zacks Investment Management reserves the right to amend the terms or rescind the free Stock Market Outlook offer at any time and for any reason at its discretion. 3 https://cl.S7.exct.net/?qs=79f5a5018cdf166cb94b3320d24337600158b62f8606f1126fd9189a1b0a08d572f561177eab1ec86fab852b795496a3087a274aab568444 Axios, March 9, 2019 4 https://cl.S7.exct.net/?qs=79f5a5018cdf166c42b689ac5051de44acad4fc218d27e2f00b4ef2145a2b81bcbe4bd4556451bf9618d42ef04df764462ada9b741d6bf07 Yahoo Finance, March 12, 2019 5 https://cl.S7.exct.net/?qs=79f5a5018cdf166cb94b3320d24337600158b62f8606f1126fd9189a1b0a08d572f561177eab1ec86fab852b795496a3087a274aab568444 Axios March 9, 2019 6 Zacks Investment Management reserves the right to amend the terms or rescind the free Stock Market Outlook offer at any time and for any reason at its discretion. DISCLOSURE Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. Zacks Investment Management, Inc. is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Zacks Investment Research. Zacks Investment Management is an independent Registered Investment Advisory firm and acts as an investment manager for individuals and institutions. Zacks Investment Research is a provider of earnings data and other financial data to institutions and to individuals. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. Do not act or rely upon the information and advice given in this publication without seeking the services of competent and professional legal, tax, or accounting counsel. 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